Dollar General is opening the most stores in 2026, about 450 in the US, followed by Dollar Tree at about 400 and Chipotle at 350 to 370. Every list agrees on that ranking. What those summaries leave out is which numbers are plans versus stores already open, who actually signs each lease, and how large each plan is relative to the chain behind it. Measured against their own fleets, the fastest growers in 2026 run fewer than 1,300 stores, and the two biggest plans add 2.1% and 4.2% to the chains running them.
We built this list from the moves This Week in Retail has tracked since March, tracing every count directly back to the company: an earnings release, an SEC exhibit, an earnings call, a company statement or an on-the-record spokesperson. Where a chain reported openings so far, that count sits beside the plan. Figures reflect each chain's latest report, checked October 27, 2026. Each chain's name in the table links to its source.
For market context, Coresight Research tracked 3,215 US store openings by midyear and projected about 4,482 for the full year, revised down from the 5,500 it forecast at the start of the year. The average opening tracked in the first half was 19,255 square feet, and 88.5% of openings were off-mall.
The 2026 opening board
Sorted by the size of the plan. Each plan is gross or net exactly as the company reports it, and says net where the company does. "Plan ÷ fleet" divides the plan's midpoint by the latest store count the company reported, which already includes some of the year's openings, so it reads slightly low.
| Chain | 2026 plan, in the company's terms | Opened so far, or in the latest period | Stores now | Plan ÷ fleet | Who opens them |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar General | About 450 US, plus about 10 in Mexico (fiscal year to Jan. 2027) | 321 company-wide by July 31 | 21,148, including Mexico | 2.1% | Corporate |
| Dollar Tree | About 400 openings and 75 closings | 188 by Aug. 1 | 9,436 (US and Canada) | 4.2% | Corporate |
| Chipotle | 350 to 370, including 10 to 15 partner-run abroad | 100 in Q2, 80 with a Chipotlane | 4,200+ | 8.6% | Corporate |
| AutoZone | Fiscal year ended Aug. 29: 236 US, 374 with Mexico and Brazil | All 236 | 6,863 US | 3.4% | Corporate |
| O'Reilly Auto Parts | 225 to 235 net, North America | 110 net by June 30 | 6,695 | 3.4% | Corporate |
| 7-Eleven | 205 openings and 645 closings (fiscal year to Feb. 2027) | Not reported | 12,712 | 1.6% | Franchise and corporate |
| Dutch Bros | At least 185 system shops | 89 by June 30 (77 company, 12 franchise) | 1,225 | 15.1% | Mostly corporate |
| Aldi | More than 180, close to 80 of them Southeastern Grocers conversions | Not reported | Nearly 2,800 by year end | Corporate | |
| Ace Hardware | More than 170 | 100 by Sept. 2 | Independent owners in a co-op | ||
| Five Below | About 150 net | 101 net by Aug. 1 | 2,022 | 7.4% | Corporate |
| Casey's | At least 120 in the fiscal year to April 2027, through M&A and new builds | Not reported | 2,959 | 4.1% | Corporate |
| Burlington | About 115 net (fiscal year to Jan. 2027) | Not reported | 1,287 | 8.9% | Corporate |
| Ross and dd's DISCOUNTS | 115 | All 115 by Oct. 12 | About 2,377 | 4.8% | Corporate |
| TJX, US banners | 104 net: 45 T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, 35 HomeGoods (11 of them Homesense), 24 Sierra | Not split out | Corporate | ||
| Tractor Supply | About 100 | 91 by Sept. 26 | 2,486 | 4.0% | Corporate |
| QuikTrip | At least 80, per a company spokesperson | Not reported | 1,200+ | 6.7% | Corporate |
| CAVA | 75 to 77 net | 38 by July 12 | 476 | 16.0% | Corporate |
| Ollie's | 75 | 15 in Q2 | 686 | 10.9% | Corporate |
| Dave's Hot Chicken | 70-plus, worldwide | Not reported | 400+ in April | Franchise | |
| Boot Barn | 70 (fiscal year to March 2027) | 27 by June 27 | 566 | 12.4% | Corporate |
| Shake Shack | 60 to 65 company-run, plus 40 to 45 licensed | 33 company-run by Q2 | Corporate, plus licensed | ||
| First Watch | 60 to 62 net, system-wide | 18 in Q2 | Mostly corporate | ||
| Barnes & Noble | 60 | Not reported | 730+ | 8.2% | Corporate |
| Warby Parker | 50 | 15 net in Q2 | 352 | 14.2% | Corporate |
| Sprouts | 42 net | 13 by June 28 | 490 | 8.6% | Corporate |
| Black Rock Coffee Bar | 38 | 19 net by June 30 | 200 | 19.0% | Corporate |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods | About 14 House of Sport and 22 Field House | Not split out | Corporate | ||
| Costco | 33 worldwide in the fiscal year to Aug. 2027, 5 of them relocations | 28 in fiscal 2026, 3 of them relocations | 939 worldwide | Corporate | |
| Advance Auto Parts | 30 to 35, cut from 40 to 45 | Not reported | Corporate | ||
| Grocery Outlet | 30 to 33 net | 17 opened, 40 closed by July 4 | 547 | 5.8% | Independent operators |
| Target | More than 30 | Not in the release | Corporate | ||
| Academy Sports + Outdoors | 20 to 25 | 7 by Aug. 18 | Corporate | ||
| Floor & Decor | 20 warehouse stores | 11 by June 25 | 281 | 7.1% | Corporate |
| Walmart US | About 20 grand openings across 2026 and early 2027 | Not reported | Corporate | ||
| Home Depot | About 15 | Not reported | Corporate | ||
| IKEA US | 10 | Not reported | Corporate | ||
| Huey Magoo's | About 100 open by year end, from 92; 60 more awarded this year | Not reported | 92 | Franchise | |
| Wingstop | 15% to 16% global unit growth, no unit count | 76 US in Q2 | 2,728 US | Franchise |
Two major names are absent on purpose. Starbucks guides to 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses globally without breaking out a US number, and McDonald's combines its US openings with its largest international markets. Lowe's, Nordstrom Rack and Ulta have 2026 numbers in the press that we could not verify against an official company source, so they are left out rather than guessed. Raising Cane's is out because the only company-stated 2026 count we found, nearly 100 restaurants, was given to a reporter in June 2025.
The biggest counts are the slowest growth
A 450-store plan sounds like the most aggressive real estate program in the country. Next to Dollar General's 21,148 stores, it represents 2.1% growth, roughly one new store for every 47 it already operates. Dollar Tree sits at 4.2%, O'Reilly at 3.4% and Tractor Supply at 4.0%.
The chains growing fastest run much smaller fleets. Black Rock Coffee Bar plans 38 openings on a base of 200, which is 19.0%. CAVA plans 75 to 77 on 476. Dutch Bros, Warby Parker and Boot Barn all sit between 12% and 16%. Every chain in our table growing faster than 10% ran fewer than 1,300 stores at its last report.
That changes who warrants your outreach. A chain adding one store for every five to nine it operates is entering trade areas it does not know yet, and every signed lease represents a larger share of its year. If you're marketing space, the 200-to-1,300-store chains are where a new site still changes the year.
How far along each plan is
By their latest reports, the chains break into three distinct groups:
- Done or nearly done. Ross finished all 115 by October 12. AutoZone's fiscal year closed on August 29 with 236 US openings. Tractor Supply had 91 of about 100 open by September 26.
- About halfway. CAVA had 38 of 75 to 77 open by mid-July, Dutch Bros 89 of 185, O'Reilly 110 of 225 to 235, Dollar Tree 188 of 400. Five Below was further along at 101 of 150.
- Back-loaded. Sprouts had opened 13 of its 42 by the end of June. Academy had 7 of 20 to 25 open in mid-August, with 11 more due that quarter.
The back-loaded group matters less than it looks if you are pitching a site today. A store opening in December 2026 had its lease signed long ago. The stores left to open in 2026 are already under lease, so the space these chains are shopping for now is for 2027 and 2028. Watch next year's guidance, not this year's delivery schedule. Costco has already put a number on fiscal 2027, 33 warehouses, and named Buffalo, New York and Lawrence, Kansas as new US markets.
Who signs the lease
Almost every retail plan in the table is corporate: the brand's internal real estate team picks the site and signs the lease. Restaurants split. Chipotle, CAVA, Black Rock and Shake Shack's US stores are company-run. Dutch Bros is mostly company-run as well, with 12 of its 89 first-half openings franchised.
Franchise growth works differently on paper. Wingstop franchises 2,671 of its 2,728 US restaurants, and its US total was 2,411 a year earlier. Dave's Hot Chicken has sold the rights to more than 1,020 franchise locations against 70-plus openings this year. That spread marks the difference between a multi-unit commitment and a ribbon cutting: a franchise deal is units signed for the next several years, and the person signing each lease is a franchisee group, not the brand.
Here are the multi-unit agreements from 2026 that name their target markets:
| Brand | Deal | Markets named | Timing | Brand today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaiian Bros | 52 restaurants with Southern Rock Restaurants | Jacksonville, Gainesville, Tampa, Orlando | Six years, 24 in the first three | 80+ restaurants in 14 states |
| Huey Magoo's | 60 restaurants awarded | Houston (15), Kansas City (10), North Dallas (8), Conway and Northwest Arkansas (6), Birmingham (4), and more | Not stated | 92 restaurants in 13 states |
| Swig | 25 drive-thrus, as small as 800 to 850 square feet | Port St. Lucie, Palm Beach, Stuart | First by end of 2026 | 150+ locations in 16 states |
| Chicken Salad Chick | 25 restaurants, its largest deal; 52 restaurants sold in Q1 | Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Upper Hudson Valley | Not stated | |
| Crunch Fitness | 20 clubs of 33,000 to 48,000 square feet, by one franchisee | Phoenix metro | By end of 2027 | |
| Slim Chickens | 17 restaurants | Middlesex, Mercer and Essex counties, NJ | First in 2027 |
Florida keeps surfacing. Hawaiian Bros, Swig and Smalls Sliders all signed Florida deals this year, and Swig and Smalls Sliders both named Port St. Lucie.
Some of these openings are someone else's old store
Several of the largest programs lean partly on second-generation boxes. Close to 80 of Aldi's 180-plus openings are Southeastern Grocers stores converted to the Aldi format. Burlington reports expenses tied to "bankruptcy acquired leases" in its results. All four of Ocean State Job Lot's 2026 stores are former Big Lots. Barnes & Noble's new Ontario Mills store took over a former Sam Ash. Casey's notes that its 120 includes acquisitions.
For a landlord, a conversion is backfill rather than net new demand. For a chain's real estate team, it is the fastest way to get doors open, because the physical box already exists.
Who's opening and closing at once
Some of the largest opening targets sit right next to closure counts, and some of those are larger. 7-Eleven plans 205 openings and 645 closings in North America this fiscal year, a net loss of 440. Dollar Tree pairs its 400 openings with 75 closings. Grocery Outlet opened 17 stores and closed 40 in the first half, while still guiding to 30 to 33 net for the year. Wendy's opened 44 US restaurants through midyear and ended down 245 net, then withdrew its 2026 outlook.
Closures form the other half of the picture, freeing the boxes that the conversions above fill. Our closure tracker logs US retail closures every week, with every row traced directly to a source, and our 2026 retail bankruptcies piece covers the closing side of the year.
What a plan doesn't tell you
A company's target count shows that a real estate team is funded and moving. It does not tell you where the pins go. While a few plans name target territories, like Aldi's entry into Colorado, Costco's new markets, or the franchise deals above, most publish a single number.
That leaves the work every team still has to defend: every one of those 450 or 38 stores is a physical site someone had to justify to a committee. GrowthFactor checks every site against the team's own stores in seconds and shows the data and reasoning behind each result. That is how Lil Sweet Treat went from 2 locations to 8 in one year with a two-person team and no analysts. If your brand is on a board like this one, see it run on one of your own markets.
