David Simon, 1962-2026
The commercial real estate industry lost David Simon on March 22. Known as "The King of American Malls," he led Simon Property Group for three decades, building it into the largest publicly traded mall owner in the country: 250+ properties, more than 200 million square feet, and 4,500%+ total shareholder return. He was 64. Our condolences go to the Simon family.
This Week's Numbers
Aldi committed to 180 new stores across 31 states. Target put $5 billion toward store remodels and supply chain, with 300 new stores planned through 2035. Dutch Bros and Raising Cane's are adding nearly 300 locations between them. Ross is opening ~110 stores this year. BJ's is entering Texas with 9 warehouse clubs. At the same time, Eddie Bauer is shutting down all 174 stores by April 30. Wendy's is closing up to 358 locations by mid-year.
The reasons are different for each — Eddie Bauer is on its third bankruptcy, carrying roughly $1 billion in debt. Wendy's saw comp sales drop 11.3%. Aldi's private-label model and Dutch Bros' drive-through format are generating the per-store profitability to keep signing leases. But the net effect is the same: ~3,000+ locations are going dark by mid-year, and the brands with expansion budgets are looking at the same markets.
The Cost Picture
Wholesale costs (PPI): +3.4% year-over-year in February, a 13-month high. Two line items tell most of the story: fresh and dry vegetables jumped 48.9% in one month, accounting for over 20% of the rise in final demand goods. Diesel fuel rose 13.9%, driving nearly 30% of the increase in intermediate processed goods. Energy overall reversed from -2.3% in January to +2.3% in February. That's food costs, freight costs, and store operating costs all moving up at the same time.
One number that hits closer to the consumer: gas prices jumped roughly $1 per gallon in 30 days, from $2.98 in late February to about $4.00 this week. That's real money out of every household's budget, and it shows up in where and how often people shop.
Tariffs add pressure on top — the effective tariff rate is 10.5%, the highest since 1943, adding an estimated $570-600 per household per year in consumer costs. But tariffs aren't the single explanation for the closures and expansions below. Eddie Bauer's debt load predates the current tariff schedule. Wendy's comp sales were falling before input costs spiked. These are brand-specific problems that rising costs make worse, not problems that rising costs created.
The cost picture determines who can sign a new lease right now — and who can't. The brands expanding below have per-store profitability that works even with elevated input costs. The brands closing were already running out of margin.
Who's Opening Stores
Where the Action Is
Here's what these commitments look like at the market level — where space is opening up, what's closing, and who's looking at what.
180 new Aldi stores across 31 states. Six months ago, Aldi was in 39 states. Now Colorado is getting 50+ locations and a new distribution center. Maine becomes Aldi's 40th state. That's not testing a market — that's entering it. Aldi's typical footprint is 12,000-22,000 square feet. They're also converting former Southeastern Grocers locations, targeting 200+ conversions by 2027. If you're in the Denver or Colorado Springs market, grocery competition just changed overnight. If you have a vacant 15,000-square-foot box, you have a new phone call to make.
174 Eddie Bauer locations (150 US, 24 Canadian), all closing by April 30. Third bankruptcy in 106 years, roughly $1 billion in debt, full liquidation this time. The portfolio totals 1.08 million square feet, averaging about 6,300 SF per location, mostly mall inline and lifestyle center in suburban upper-middle income areas. Nordstrom Rack is opening 22 stores this year across FL, CA, TN, MA, MD, NJ, WA, VA, and OH — but Rack needs 30,000+ square feet. Those 4,000-square-foot Eddie Bauer boxes will likely need to subdivide or find a completely different tenant profile.
Wendy's dark sites are someone else's pipeline. 298-358 closures in the first half of 2026, roughly 6% of the U.S. system, after comparable store sales dropped 11.3%. Those are drive-through pads. Raising Cane's wants roughly 100 new locations. Dutch Bros wants 181, coming off record revenue of $1.64 billion (up 28% year-over-year). If you're expanding in quick-service restaurant (QSR), those Wendy's addresses are worth pulling.
Darden (Olive Garden, LongHorn) posted comp sales up 4.2% this week. The restaurant industry average fell 1.2%. That gap was visible last quarter too — now it's widening. Darden is adding 31 restaurants and projecting higher revenue while independents and weaker franchises lose share. For anyone modeling restaurant-anchored centers, the question is whether the anchor is gaining traffic or losing it.
BJ's Wholesale Club is entering Texas — 9 new warehouse clubs in 2026, with at least 4 in the DFW area (Fort Worth, Waxahachie, Grand Prairie, Forney). That's 100,000+ square foot boxes in a market where BJ's has never operated. They're targeting 25-30 new clubs over two years. If you're tracking warehouse club competition in North Texas, this is new.
Ross Stores opened 17 locations in February-March across 11 states, including dd's DISCOUNTS entering Utah for the first time. The FY2026 plan is ~110 new stores (~85 Ross, ~25 dd's). Long-term targets: 2,900 Ross + 700 dd's nationally. Off-price keeps signing leases.
What to Watch
Three releases in the next six days. The final Michigan consumer sentiment reading drops Friday — the preliminary 55.5 was the lowest of 2026. Conference Board consumer confidence arrives Monday. February retail sales arrive Tuesday, delayed from their original March release by the government shutdown.
Oil is volatile. Brent dropped from $110 to $99.75 on March 25 on ceasefire speculation, then rebounded to $105.85 on March 26 after Iran rejected direct talks. Drone attacks on two Kuwaiti refineries on March 20 disrupted roughly 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity. Brent is up 43% year-over-year. Where it goes next directly affects freight, delivery, and operating costs for every retailer on this week's list.
Next Thursday, we'll know more.